USDCHF Extreme Event Monte Carlo Model

If you have been reading my Forex System 2.0 blog, you must have realized by now I am writing more and more on how to use artificial intelligence and mathematical models in currency trading. In this post, I am going to discuss how to build normal mixture Monte Carlo simulation models for sudden currency price…

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USDZAR Rallies Hard On Finance Minister Getting Fired

USDZAR is an exotic currency pair. Have you ever tried to trade USDZAR? Did you read the post on 42-252 Trend Trading Strategy? In this post I show you how to use SMAs in building a robust trend trading strategy. Trading trends is what makes fortunes. Trading exotics pairs is an art that requires a…

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42-252 SMA Trend Trading Strategy Python Code

In this post we are going to backtest a simple trend trading strategy. This simple trend trading strategy entails calculating the difference between 42 period SMA and 252 period SMA and then going long/short if the difference is greater than or lower than a certain regime variable SD. USD was on a roller coaster after…

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FOMC Meeting This Wednesday Increasing Interest Rate

After a long time, FOMC Meeting scheduled this Wednesday is most likely to increase the interest rates in US. FOMC makes the decision on the FED Fund Rate. This is a the short term interest rate rather an overnight interest rate that banks and financial institutions pay to each other to cover the reserve requirements…

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How To Trade The US Presidential Elections?

8th November was a tumultuous day for the US politics as well as the currency market. It has been a wild day for both USA and currency market. Most pairs had a whipsaw day and are now standing almost where they had started. Markets are confused just as we are confused on what happened. Hillary…

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How To Use NNET Multinomial Log Linear Models In Trading?

In a previous post we tried to use Elman Recurrent Neural Network in predicting four hourly candle. The problem with Elman Neural Network is that it takes a long time to do the calculations. Last night also when I started writing this post, I tried to train an Elman Neural Network. It took more than…

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How To Use Vector Autoregression Models In Predicting Price Using R?

In a previous post, we tried to model the daily and the weekly candle with an Elman Neural Network. The results were not encouraging. The problem that we face with neural networks is that most of the time these networks get stuck up with a local minima. So everytime you run the model, it will…

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How To Trade With Fibonacci levels Video Tutorials

Fibonacci levels are frequently used by pro traders in their trading. Fibonacci are leading indicators. This is unlike most other moving average based indicators that are lagging in nature. The good thing about leading indicators is that you know before hand where the price is most likely to react. So you can plan ahead. Watch…

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Quantopian Is Your Chance To Level Wall Street’s Playing Field

Quantopian wants to create a crowd sourced hedge fund by inspiring freelance quants develop algorithmic trading strategies.  This is what it says: “Quantopian inspires talented people everywhere to write investment algorithms. Select authors may license their algorithms to us and get paid based on performance.” Quantopian company was founded in 2011 by John Fawcett and…

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How To Predict The Next H4 Candle Using Elman Neural Network?

As a professional trader, I know candlestick patterns are important signals. I mostly trade candlestick patterns on H4 timeframe. I also a programmer who wants to build an automated trading system using neural networks. If you have read my previous post then you must have an idea how important candlestick patterns are especially on higher…

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